Analyst Projects NVIDIA Blackwell Chip Shipment in Q4
TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a new research report, NVIDIA Blackwell chip shipments will be 150,000 to 200,000 pieces in Q4. He also estimated shipments in the first quarter of 2025 will grow 200% to 250% sequentially from the previous quarter, that is, to reach 500,000 to 550,000 pieces.
Microsoft became the largest customer of NVIDIA GB200. Its NVIDIA GB200 order volume surged 3 to 4 times in Q4, more than the other cloud service providers combined, according to the report.
IC Smart’s report quoted Kuo saying that Microsoft is the most active customer in purchasing the GB200 chip, currently the most powerful of NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture chips.
In addition to the GB200 NVL36 server order for Q4, which was originally scheduled for testing, Microsoft recently planned to obtain GB200 NVL72 samples for testing before NVIDIA's DGX GB200 NVL72 is mass-produced in the middle of the second quarter of 2025.
According to projections, Microsoft's GB200 orders for the Blackwell architecture in the fourth quarter of this year have increased significantly to 1,400 to 1,500 cabinets from 300 to 500 cabinets (primarily GB200 NVL36). About 70% of them were GB200 NVL72, with the highest increase amounting to nearly 400%. Subsequent orders will continue to focus on the GB200 NVL72.
Kuo further pointed out that Microsoft has recently discussed with key component suppliers the status of fourth-quarter production expansion, i.e., about 1.5 to 2 times or more of the original capacity, and is preparing for stocking in advance.
Kuo is a Taiwanese senior tech supply chain analyst who made his name covering Apple iPhones. In recent years, Kuo expanded his interest to Nvidia and Tesla.